With Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif currently [April 27] in Oman with growing criticism at home over the leaked ‘Zarifgate’ audiotape, an American analyst claimed Tuesday [April 27] that CIA director William Burns had met Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top nuclear official, in Baghdad.

Adding to the smoke and mirrors enveloping US-Iran relations in recent days, Barbara Slavin, of the Atlantic Council think-tank, quoted a “well-placed individual” in tweeting that Burns had met the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, with a Saudi also present. Slavin surmised that “the conversation was broader” than the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Iran and the US are trying to revive through indirect talks in Vienna.

Slavin’s tweet follows three developments, which help provide context.

Most recently, on Monday [April 26] Michael Rubin, of the hawkish American Enterprise Institute, claimed on the website 19FortyFive that Burns had “in recent days…quietly traveled to Baghdad, according to multiple Iraq sources I have spoken to”  and had met un-named Iranian officials in the home of Fouad Hussein, the Iraqi foreign minister.

Rubin claimed this showed that America’s “real talks” with Iran were in Baghdad, not in Vienna, where a US delegation led by special envoy Rob Malley is only indirectly part of discussions on reviving the 2015 deal among its remaining signatories – China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

On reading Rubin’s piece, some speculated that Burns might have met Zarif, although it was soon established that Burns had left Baghdad before Zarif arrived on Monday on his regional tour taking in Qatar, Iraq, and now Oman.

Just a day before Rubin’s piece, Iran International on Sunday [April 27] published a three-hour audiotape of Zarif discussing Iran’s foreign relations, a tape that set off a firestorm of domestic criticism of the foreign minister, largely over negative remarks about Russia and the late Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, but partly in alarm at the tape ending up with a foreign television station.

The tape also sparked controversy in Washington due to Zarif’s reference to conversations with John Kerry, Secretary of State when the 2015 nuclear deal was signed, over Israeli military operations in Syria. Some Republicans demanded Kerry resign from his current position in the Biden administration overseeing action on climate change.

Days earlier, on April 18, the Financial Times reported that Iranian and Saudi officials had met in Baghdad to explore improving bilateral relations. The newspaper suggested these had focused on Yemen – where Riyadh and Tehran back different sides in the war – although the Saudis have been a consistent critic of the 2015 nuclear deal and may want to hedge against its revival.

Throughout these days of smoke and mirrors, there has also been a flurry of denials. A Saudi official was quoted in the Financial Times story denying any talks with Tehran.

Kerry denied Monday he had discussed Israeli strikes with Zarif. Iran foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh on Tuesday dismissed as “yellow news” any claims that Burns had met Iranian officials in Baghdad.

No-one has yet denied the authenticity of the Zarif tape. Indeed, President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday ordered a probe into who had leaked it.