Nasser Hadian, who is professor of political science at the University of Tehran and has been a visiting professor in the United States, says enmity with America is a serious obstacle in the way of Iran’s development.

In a wide-ranging interview published by the Iranian Labour News Agency ILNA on Monday February 1, Hadian said two clocks were ticking: the impact of US sanctions, and Iran’s mid-February deadline to reduce the access of United Nations inspectors to Iran’s nuclear facilities. According to Hadian, Iran’s clock is ticking faster than the sanctions clock – explaining why the new administration of President Joe Biden was prioritizing reviving the 2015 nuclear deal and leaving other matters, including regional security and defense, for later discussion.

The US might “quickly return” to the nuclear deal – known as the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – Hadian explained, and leave what Antony Blinken, the new secretary of state, has called Iran’s “malign” activities for wider agreement reached over the next ten to 12 months.

Hadian warned that Iran’s threat to reduce UN nuclear inspection might lead to Tehran again being referred to the UN Security Council (as it was in 2006), which would make it hard for Iran to resolve the case. Hadian seemed to be arguing that while Iran’s expansion of the nuclear program above JCPOA limits since 2019 – Tehran recently increased uranium enrichment to 20 percent and has boosted uranium production to 200kg per year – could put pressure on the US, reducing UN inspections might come back to bite Iran.

Hadian also warned the Rouhani administration that a failure to reach a settlement soon might lead to hardliners, who are likely to win June’s presidential election, offering greater concessions to the US later on.

Hadian said that Biden’s choice for leading positions of those involved in forging the JCPOA – Blinken, Jake Sullivan as National Security Adviser, and Robert Malley as Iran envoy – suggested the new US president wanted to return to the deal within his first 100 days in office. Hadian said Biden saw the US back in a global leadership role: “He will focus on diplomacy, but he would certainly also use America’s military might and the power of sanctions as part of his toolkit.”

Hadian added that for Biden, the main threat for the US is China, which in 20 to 25 years could become a world power. Asked how the conflict between the US and Russia might affect Iran, Hadian said: “It depends on Iran’s plans. If it wants to continue confrontation with America, it should look toward the Russian camp. But if Iran wishes to get closer to the US, the Russians would be annoyed as they stood by Iran in difficult days.”

Surveying the Middle East, Hadian said that US Democrats would not forget that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had stood against Obama and supported Trump. Nevertheless, Washington would not distance itself from Israel even if it preferred Netanyahu to leave office, which would benefit Iran. Hadian added that Biden regarded Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ as offering no way forward for the Palestinians.

Hadian suggested that a new US approach to the region might improve relations between Tehran and Riyadh, arguing that differences between Washington and Tehran over Afghanistan were not significant.

Going back to the JCPOA, Hadian said if Iran was determined not to enter a wider agreement after returning to the JCPOA, it should say so right now and demand $250 billion in compensation from the US for sanctions imposed since Trump left the JCPOA in 2018. Hadian also raised the possibility that Tehran would demand the removal of the JCPOA ‘trigger mechanism,’ which gave signatories the option of moving the resumption of sanctions if Iran violated the nuclear limits.

While Iran had survived the ‘maximum pressure’ of Trump, Hadian stressed that Iranians had faced tough economic pressure: “If you ask me, I would say the Islamic Republic can continue the current situation for another ten years, but is survival really that important? What about development? Wouldn’t your children ask one day why the UAE, Turkey and our other neighbors are so developed and we aren’t?”