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Israel-Palestinian Conflict Likely To Affect Nuclear Talks, Iran Analyst Says

As talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are taking place, the demonstration of Iran’s missile power by Palestinians will have repercussions down the road, Sadegh Maleki, a well-known political analyst in Iran wrote in Iran Diplomacy, a Persian-language website on May 12.

Iran’s missile program is an issue for the West and firing hundreds of missiles into Israel by Iran-backed Palestinian groups cannot be ignored.

Hamas officials in Gaza as well as Lebanese Hezbollah have declared in recent days that Iran has been providing weapons and funds to the two organizations, a fact that was not so openly publicized before, but reiterating it during recent days cannot be a sheer coincidence, Maleki says.

Iran is making it known to Israel and other regional players that it is behind the attacks on Israel. As Mahmoud Sadrzadeh, a Middle east affairs analyst told Iran International TV on Wednesday, this is a dangerous acknowledgment that may cost Tehran dearly.

Maleki also argued that renewed tensions and military conflicts between Israel and Palestinians cannot be looked at mainly from the perspective of attacks on Tel Aviv by Hamas. He added that it would be simplistic to think that this volume of attacks on Israel could deal an critical blow to the Jewish state. It is also simplistic to think that the US will ignore the attacks on its strategic partner in the region. 

The analyst also observed that the recent tensions between Israel and Palestinian is being played out against a backdrop of tensions that threaten Hezbollah in Lebanon and Russia's regional diplomacy has made attacks on Iranian targets in Syria easier for Israel.

He generally warned that the recent Israel-Palestinian conflict should be seen as part of the bigger picture of the region. He warned that Iran should consider the interests of all the players in the region and particularly in Syria.

The conflict of interest between Iran and Russia in Syria was recently exposed in Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's leaked tape that was broadcast on Iran International TV on 25 April.

Maleki further warned that the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict may serve the interests of Israel, the United States and Russia while, the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic could be its victims. He described the final outcome of the current round of conflicts as a "significant achievement for Iran's enemies."

On the other hand, he reminded that from an American perspective addressing Iran's regional ambitions and its missile program is the continuation of the talks over the 2015 nuclear deal. The rocket attacks on Tel Aviv and its magnification by Israel, will justify the harsh suppression of Palestinians and at the same time it will prompt Western countries to follow up addressing Iran's regional and missile programs more seriously.

The analyst warned Iranian leaders that cheering the strikes on Tel Aviv might be too premature as an Iranian reaction and while Israel is not going to sustain major damage, Iran might end up in a more serious situation as a result of the collateral damage to the nuclear deal.

Other Iranian analysts have also warned about the consequence of International developments on Iran's domestic political outlook, by pointing out that looking at the Iranian presidential election, regardless of the impact of the talks over the JCPOA, might lead to the formation of a new Iranian administration, most likely a hardline government, that might find it too difficult to implement the agreements expected to be made about Iran's nuclear program in the course of the Vienna negotiations.

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