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What Do Iran's Presidential Candidates Say About Foreign Policy, JCPOA?

A day before the Iranian presidential election of Friday June 18, and with four of seven runners still in the race, the candidates' views on foreign policy and Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers remain murky. 

None of the four candidates has directly opposed reviving the nuclear deal, the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive plan of Action). Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi (Raeesi), the likely conservative frontrunner, said in one debate that he would back the JCPOA if it was “in the people’s interest.” This surprised those who had forgotten that in the 2017 election, when he lost to Hassan Rouhani, Raisi said he regarded the JCPOA as a “national decision.”

Some abroad have argued that Raisi, as someone sanctioned by the United States, would not be able to attend international forums if elected president. But Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, a well-travelled man, is sanctioned under the same executive order, signed by former president Donald Trump, as Raisi.

Funny infographics, as well as speculation in the centrist Sazandegi newspaper in Tehran, have Zarif continuing as foreign minister if the center-right candidate and former central bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati is elected president. A clever, but easy choice.

The infographics cast hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili as Raisi’s likely choice. The speculation usually ignores current deputy foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator Abbas Araghchi. Iran International analyst Morteza Kazemian argues Araghchi has already been acting as foreign minister following the leak in April of an interview with Zarif being frank over foreign policy, although Zarif has also been criticized for spending too much time abroad engaged in diplomacy.

Former Basij militia chief Alireza Afshar, who leads Raisi campaign's strategic council, has said Raisi believes in negotiations with the US but would not make these a center-piece of his approach.

During the 2017 presidential elections, Raisi likened the JCPOA to a check, “a document that is respected but…nothing before it is cashed by a powerful government." At the time, he criticized Rouhani for revealing Iranian weaknesses during negotiations with the US.

Hemmati has also said negotiations in Vienna should continue. He told Iran's state-run Radio Javan that reviving the JCPOA would be “a prelude to lifting the sanctions as the starting point of economic flourishing in Iran." Hemmati has said on social-media platforms that improving the welfare and outlook for Iranians required a “realistic” foreign policy and détente − which he tied to easing tensions with regional rivals, particularly Saudi Arabia.

During the presidential debates Hemmati teased rival candidate Mohsen Rezaei (Rezaee) over his suggestion, floated recently, of taking US soldiers captive in order to secure the release of billions of Iranian funds frozen abroad by third-parties wary of US third-party sanctions.

As secretary of the Expediency Council, Razaei has helped blocked legislation passed by the previous parliament that would allow Iran to accede to the intergovernmental Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Hemmati has argued that the legislation should be ratified to allow Iran access to international financial markets, while many principlists argue this would just give Iran greater exposure to US sanction.

 

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