While Turkey is undergoing a transition from secularism to political Islam– which is in its final stages - Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-missile system has widened the gap between the US and Turkey. Turkey’s turn towards East accelerated when Erdogan, Turkey’s president, understood the EU’s arms were not open for Turkey anymore. The EU’s set strict conditions for Turkey; included but not limited to the reform of criminal law, addressing the massacre of Armenians, resolution to the Northern Cyprus issue, Turkey’s Kurds, and respect for human rights.

Turkey’s economy and its Geostrategic location right next to Europe gave Erdogan the opportunity to ignore and violate agreements and international conventions. The EU introduced a non-binding resolution against Turkey in November 2016 which called on Turkey’s military to stop brutal crackdowns. Erdogan threatened the EU to open their borders for asylum seekers toward Europe. The fear of IS fighters entering Europe left no other way for the EU but to pay 3bn Euros to Turkey for border security. Another consequence of this agreement was Europe’s silence over Turkey’s attacks on Northern Syria and routine crackdowns on domestic dissidents.

Turkey shot down a Russian fighter in 2015 which blurred their bilateral relations for a while. However, playing a role in Syria was so important to Erdogan that he personally visited Moscow to mend relations. Turkey worked on ties with Israel and Arab countries at the same time so that these countries could fill the Europeans’ place in Turkey’s economy. He went ahead to join the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition under the Saudis’ leadership. Even though Erdogan’s ambition has always been to lead the Islamic world, Saudi Arabia never allowed Turkey to attain such a role.

Given the political shifts in Turkish politics, their foreign policy is framed around the issues they have with Kurds. The ruling party takes every opportunity to oppress and detain all dissidents, especially Kurds, Gullen’s supporters, members of military and others. They have operated assaults beyond their borders against Kurds of other countries. Erdogan seized the opportunity after the failed coup in 2016 for his large-scale crackdown.

Erdogan has taken steps to embolden his name against Turkey’s historical figures. For example, he built the largest airport in Istanbul so Ataturk airport is heard less, he built the largest mosque, presidential palace and the suspended bridge in the world.

Membership in NATO has enabled Turkey to pursue its strategic ambitions. Turkey’s geostrategic location has made NATO overlook its membership requirements. For instance, members of NATO must be in the European continent, but only 5% of Turkey is in Europe. Democracy and the rule of law are other requirements for NATO club where Turkey is one of the largest prisons for journalists in the world.

Buying Russian weapons is not a common practice among NATO members, and Erdogan has been warned of the consequences by president Trump. Simultaneously Turkey’s relations with the EU is very rough now after Turkey sent three ships to Cyprus waters for the extraction oil in disputed territories.

Turkey seems determined to replace Russia with NATO allies. Russia would be very happy about making a NATO member defect as it is a remarkable achievement for Moscow.

Turkey’s defense minister has told his American counterpart that S-400 purchase was not a choice but out of desperateness. According to his comments, Turkey would need such a defense system in the time of being attacked; however, this purchase would not change Turkey’s defense doctrine. Playing both games is not possible for Turkey, it will cause them exclusion, it will cost them politically as well as economically and NATO will not remain silent anymore.

Contrary to Turkey’s defense minister’s points, there is no foreign threat to the country whatsoever. Besides, if there was one, NATO would be committed to defending Turkey as a member. It is known that Russia is, in fact, the biggest threat to any NATO member. Turkey’s neighbors do not have any aggression toward them. Arab states, for example, are very occupied with Iran these days and have no animosity with Turkey.

Nevertheless, Russia has a track record of not delivering its international commitments. Russia is expected to reach a bilateral agreement with the US to control the Western Euphrates, which paves the way for more Turkish presence in the region. Kurds will be the victims of the friendship between Turkey and Russia. Yet dealing with Kurds will remain the biggest challenge for Ankara.