No to Becoming Syria, Yes to Becoming Yemen or Venezuela
The irresponsible and warmongering regional activities of the Islamic Republic authorities, along with spending of the JCPOA oil dollars on creating chaos in the region, led to a new round of sanctions. The government is transferring all the costs and pressures onto its citizens by pursuing the current policies. To be able to bear these pressures, people are invited to eat dried bread and wear rags (direct quote by Velayati). Those among the most affluent of the society, scare people of the risk of Iran becoming another Syria in case of a regime change, while their policies are pushing the society towards becoming another Yemen and Venezuela.
Meanwhile, both the totalitarians and the insider “reformists” are in alignment on blaming foreign powers and keeping silent about the Islamic Republic’s foreign interventions. Reformists expect the countries exposed to the Islamic Republic's threat to continue to appease the Islamic Republic.
But other countries cannot sit and watch the regime’s agitation and terrorism and do nothing about it. The results of these activities are clear to all Iranians through today's economy, which they feel it every day. In this essay, I will point out the social consequences of these activities that might arise later or might not be tangible to all, but they will impact everyone.
Increased divorce rate
According to the chairman of the parliament's social committee, in the past year, the number of divorce requests have tripled. (Tabnak, September 28, 2018) When family’s livelihood is disturbed, obviously the disagreement increase over how to deal with problems and shortcomings. The family unit is vulnerable to economic crises in a society where the "suffer and say nothing" doctrine is not practiced anymore.
Escalation of nutritional problems
Lack of certain food items and emergence of empty shelves in the stores, the tremendous cost of daily necessities without increasing wages, and the elimination of many essential foods such as milk and meat and vegetables from the family food basket have intensified the nutritional problems of the poor in the society.
Images of workers having only bread for lunch are one of the obvious manifestations of this dilemma. Food prices have increased by 36 percent in one year according to the president of the Statistics Center, but wage increases were about 10 to 15 percent since the beginning of the year.
Homelessness
The price of houses for purchase and rent has increased by 40 to 60 percent over the past year, while incomes have only increased by 10-15 percent. The cost of housing in Iran devours between one third to a half of the family income. According to eyewitness accounts, the number of dormitories, people sleeping in graves, and homeless people in big cities have increased. Many tenants fail to pay rents on time, and this has led to tension between the landlords and tenants.
Reverse immigration
Reverse migration, which began with the previous sanctions period, has intensified in this year. Due to the mass immigration of people to big cities for employment opportunities or water shortages, many of the immigrants do not find any job opportunity or even access to minimal living conditions. The only reason for reverse immigration is to reduce the costs of living when experiencing inflation rates of 40% or more. With the continuation of the existing policies, we will probably see the mass migration to neighboring countries, something that has happened in Venezuela.
The rise of Corruption and poverty
The Islamic Republic is an institutionally and structurally corrupt regime, and its authorities abuse their power without exception because there is neither transparency nor monitoring. But in times of crisis, the opportunity for corruption increases.
During these sanction times, we are seeing a fungal growth of corruption. According to Hadi Ghavami, member of the Planning and Budget Committee of the Majlis: "The rest of the foreign currencies gained through exports should not end up in Sulaymaniyah and Herat markets, just to come back into the country with maximum price and cause inflation within the country." According to him: "Since march to the end of September, we earned 24 billion dollars in non-crude oil exports, but petrochemical and steel companies, which use cheap subsidized energy for production have only injected $ 4 billion into the NIMA system."(Tasnim, Sep. 29) According to government officials, $ 30 billion has been given to specific individuals for the import of electronic goods and automobile spare parts (unnecessary goods) at a subsidized dollar price of 4200 Tomans, which did not have an effect. The result will be the intensification of economic inequalities and poorer masses, without any wealth production or employment. The direct result of rising poverty will be increased prostitution, organized and unorganized crimes, and reduced social capital.
The government's strategy in the fight against corruption is not to transfer the resources of the three major financial empires (the leader, the IRGC, and the government companies) to the people and to pull the government and the military out of the economy as one might expect, but their tactic is the execution of a few brokers to calm the public outrage about the corruption and misery.
Unemployment
In the first six months of 1397, many foreign companies started to leave Iran. Instead of revisiting their own plans and policies (the nuclear program, their chants about the annihilation of Israel and the domination of the four capitals in the region: Baghdad, Beirut, Sana'a, and Damascus) they have decided to blame and attack Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United States. It is obvious that firing missiles and threatening ships in international waters cause foreign companies to leave, and as a result, unemployment increases, and the capital tends to leave. In addition to the exodus of foreign companies, the shortage of raw materials and mass imports has led to the closure of factories and manufacturing plants, which leads to more unemployment. By the end of the year, according to economists, 1.1 million people will be added to the unemployed population. Unemployment is the mother of all social problems. Increasing unemployment means increasing addiction, homelessness, crimes, and weakening of the family unit.
Rehabilitation
Iranian disabled people need tools and equipment, which are constantly upgrading in the world. Expensive exchange rates affect their lives directly. If this problem is handed over to the authorities, they will be forced to live in terrible conditions while the children of the authorities live in Rome, Paris, London, New York, and Toronto. The health minister's recommendation for the people to replace physiotherapy with "rubbing" reflects this backward view.
Irresponsibility and manipulation of statistics
While the two fronts attribute problems to the each other and pin medals on themselves, (like saying JCPOA caused the dollar price to rise to 18000 Tomans and if Raisi was president the dollar would be at 40000 Tomans) The society is being crushed under the consequences of both sides’ policies. When the statistics center of the country becomes a lying institution and makes up false statistics, there can no longer be any hope for solving the problems. During the same year that the dollar price has quadrupled, according to the Statics Center, point-to-point Inflation rate from August 2017 to August 2018 has been only 11.3%. If food items have seen a 36% price increase, which is less inflation in comparison to housing, home appliances, and hygiene products, then how could the point-to-point inflation be only 11.3?
Even members of the regime's parliament have not been able to digest this big lie.